Sunday, January 17, 2016

A632.1.4.RB_PALUGODCAROLYN



I have received a lot of training in the disciplines of yoga and reiki.  For those of you that are not familiar with these types of practices, they are millenarian practices that incorporate the use of intuition as an effective way of working with the energy of the body.  Through these practices I’ve learned to become more self-aware of that “gut-feeling” and to listen to the subtle messages from my subconscious.  Hoch, Kunreuther and Gunther (2001, p. 39) discuss how “cognitive abilities are poorly equipped to solve complex dynamic-optimization problems” and explain that sometimes our intuitive guesses can be on target.  But they also warn that a good manager must know when to trust our intuitive process and when to “cede the stage f the formal mathematical tools available from decision analysts and in decision-support software (p. 40).  

One of the things I do try to do when making decisions is to become fully aware of all of my options and the consequences of each option.  When making a decision I try to use a combination of rational thinking along with intuitive thought. One thing that I have learned through this class on decision making is the importance of an awareness of the decision-making process.  Although I like to rely highly on my intuitive nature, Hoch et. al. explain how “a systematic approach can help avoid imprecision in the decision process” (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001, p. 3).   One such approach is what Hoch et. al. (2001, p. 3) call dynamic programming which is “a process for solving multistage decision problems”.  The theory here is that one can solve a complex problem by breaking it up into stages and by solving the problem starting from the last stage and moving backwards towards the first stage.  This is what they call “backward induction”.  This would be similar to how you would try to strategize in a chess came by trying to “see” forward into the future to “to the end game when you consider your opening moves”.  This type of forward thinking is something that I am not accustomed to doing in my own decision-making process.  Because I rely highly on my intuitive nature, I rarely am looking into the future but instead basing decisions on a more automated process that pulls from my past knowledge and experiences.  In fact, Hoc et. al. explain our human limitations or what they describe a myopia or limit to forward planning (Hoch et al., 2001).  I am definitely guilty of this type of limited forward planning.  Part of it is related to pure laziness especially when dealing with complex problems.  The stress related to problem-solving is enough to make it cumbersome to try and look into the future.  That mixed with my natural impatient and impulsive nature make it difficult for me to have that kind of foresight.  

In conclusion I think as I mentioned earlier a combination of forward future planning and intuitive thinking with the used of dynamic decision analysis tools and resources would be a complete strategy for decision-making processes in the future.

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